2021-May-15 21:16
World
2021-April-21  16:58

Poll: Majority of Public in Northern Ireland Believe It Will Split from UK within 25 Years

TEHRAN (FNA)- A majority of the public in Northern Ireland believe it will split from the UK within 25 years, according to a new poll.

Some 37 percent of people said they believe Northern Ireland will still be part of the UK in a quarter of a century, but 51 percent believe it will not be, The Daily Mail reported. 

In the Republic of Ireland just 26 percent of voters believe Northern Ireland will still be part of the UK in 25 years compared to 54 percent who believe it will not be.

However, if a border poll was held today some 49 percent of people in Northern Ireland would vote to remain in the UK while 43 percent would support a united Ireland. 

The poll findings come amid heightened community tensions in Northern Ireland which have been inflamed by disruption caused by post-Brexit trade checks. 

The Lucid Talk poll, which had a sample size of 2,845 and a 2.5 percent margin of error, was conducted for BBC NI’s Spotlight programme between April 5-7.

Spotlight commissioned a similar poll in the Irish Republic as part of a special programme reflecting on the centenary of Northern Ireland’s foundation.

In the Irish Republic, 51 percent of people said they would vote for a united Ireland while 27 percent would vote against it. 

That poll was conducted by Lucid Talk/Ireland Thinks between April 6-9. The sample size was 1,008 with a 2.5 percent margin of error.

The poll also asked people for their views on the contentious Northern Ireland Protocol that governs post-Brexit trading arrangements between the region and the rest of the UK.

In Northern Ireland, opinion was sharply divided, with 48 percent wanting it scrapped and 46 percent thinking it should be retained.

In the Irish Republic, 74 percent said the protocol should be retained, with 10 percent saying it should be scrapped. 

In terms of Northern Ireland’s constitutional position in the longer term, the survey also asked people if they thought the region would still be within the UK in 10 years.

On the 10-year timeframe, 55 percent of people in Northern Ireland felt it would still be in the UK, with 32 percent believing a united Ireland would be achieved by then.

In the Irish Republic, 59 percent felt Northern Ireland would still be in the UK in 10 years, with 26 percent predicting Irish unity would have been achieved by then.

The results were significantly different for 25 years. In Northern Ireland, 37 percent felt the region would still be part of the UK in 25 years, with 51 percent believing it would not.

In the Irish Republic, 26 percent felt Northern Ireland would still be part of the UK in 25 years, with 54 percent saying it would not.

The poll, which was taken in a period when disorder was flaring in certain areas of Northern Ireland, asked people if they thought violence could return to the region.

In Northern Ireland, 76 percent said yes. In the Irish Republic, 87 percent feared a potential return to conflict.